Vingegaard: all roads lead to Rome

With Saturday’s victory in Pila, Jonas Vingegaard moved one step closer to a feat reserved for only a select few: cycling’s Triple Crown, achieved by just seven riders in history and still missing even from the palmarès of his great rival, Tadej Pogačar.

The Dane has already left a deep mark on this Giro, dominating the major climbs, but the hardest step still lies ahead: finishing the job.

Among riders currently active, only two have worn all three leader’s jerseys across all three Grand Tours: Richard Carapaz and Primož Roglič. And both already have the Trofeo Senza Fine in their trophy cabinet…

Victor Campenaerts, who in recent years has become one of the peloton’s most recognisable figures thanks in part to his close relationship with fans, shared a curious anecdote with a Danish media outlet on Saturday about something that happened during the stage. Over the radio, Vingegaard reportedly joked with his teammates: «Guys, I’ve got a problem: today the bike even works without a chain».

A joke, of course. A way of thanking the teammates who have protected him flawlessly so far. But also a small warning sign: in the six stages that remain, the Visma leader will need to avoid any hint of overconfidence.

History warns Vingegaard… but smiles on him too

There’s one statistic that perfectly illustrates just how unpredictable the Giro can be. In the last ten completed editions, only four riders wearing the Maglia Rosa after the penultimate Saturday managed to carry it all the way to the final finish: Tom Dumoulin in 2017, Richard Carapaz in 2019, Egan Bernal in 2021, and Tadej Pogačar in 2024.

And perhaps the clearest example of how quickly everything can change came from Visma itself. Last year, Simon Yates trailed Del Toro by almost a minute and a half before the decisive finale between Finestre and Sestriere — yet the race was completely turned on its head.

This time, however, Vingegaard and Visma will face a different kind of challenge: from here on, they will no longer be able to rely on the work of other teams. Campenaerts’ long turns at the front and the sacrifice of the domestiques will have to be enough in a third week featuring three very different mountain stages — all united by the same verdict: a summit finish.

Tuesday brings the Ticino stage to Carì: just 113 kilometres, but intense and nervous, featuring the Val Leontica circuit and a final climb that ramps up to gradients of 13%. Friday, meanwhile, delivers the major Dolomite showdown — long, brutal and potentially decisive: six mountain passes, around 5,000 metres of elevation gain, the Passo Giau as the Cima Coppi at over 2,200 metres, and an unprecedented finish in Alleghe, at Piani di Pezzè. Finally, on Saturday, focus and composure will also be essential through the long flat section preceding the double final ascent to Piancavallo.

Rivals, alliances, and a race still wide open

Despite their sizeable deficit to Vingegaard, Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe appear to have rediscovered their sharpness after the struggles of the opening week. Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari both know the Giro well, and their two-pronged presence could become a real weapon — especially on Friday’s queen stage, should one of them decide to launch a long-range attack.

Thymen Arensman should not be underestimated either. Last year, he proved capable of winning two stages at the Tour de France through breakaways. More cautious, however, is Felix Gall, who on paper could thrive on the high-altitude slopes of the Passo Giau thanks to his qualities as a steady climber, but who tempered expectations on Saturday: «For me, at this point, it’s more a race for the podium».

Then there is Afonso Eulálio, one of the surprise packages of this Corsa Rosa. Vingegaard, for his part, knows that when his rivals decide to go all in, there will be no shortage of temporary allies willing to work together against whoever launches the attack.

And he himself has never lowered his guard. At his first press conference in the Maglia Rosa, he made his stance crystal clear: «Anyone can have a bad day. You have to stay focused and keep fighting for this beautiful jersey. Carrying it all the way to Rome would be a dream.»